International Research Journal of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences

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Estimating the risk of death from COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

Hamid H. Hussien

Article Number: irjmbs.20.007  |   Pages: 29-35  |   Vol. 5 (4), September 2020   |   DOI:

 Received: June 5, 2020  Accepted: August 4, 2020  Published: September 22, 2020


This study aims to estimate the risk of death in terms of case fatality ratio (CFR) and point prevalence using a dataset of COVID-19 infections from Saudi Arabia. Another method for estimating CFR by regression modeling was employed, in which the linear functional relationship between the cumulative number of deaths and the cumulative number of confirmed cases was evaluated. The main findings are: The point prevalence of COVID-19 ranged from 0.06% to 4.27%, suggesting that approximately 0.427% of the population of Saudi Arabia has been infected by COVID-19 as of June 18, 2020. The CFR exhibited changes overtime as follows: it was 1.3 on March 24, reached its peak (14.69) on April 7, and gradually declined and stabilized at 5.36. Again, it is gradually increased and reached 7.8 on June 18, 2020. The average CFR was estimated as 7.77± 0.65. The linear trend of the COVID-19 Pandemic in terms of best fit for the data was found to be statistically significant with an R2 value of 0.97. The future of the COVID-19 Pandemic remains unclear, suggesting an extreme and massive action to slow down the global spread of the virus.


Case fatality ratio, prevalence, COVID-19, Saudi Arabia

How to Cite this Article

Hussien HH(2020). Estimating the risk of death from COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia. Int. Res. J. Med. Biomed. Sci 5 (4):29-35.

International Research Journal of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences
Vol.5 (4),pp. 29-35, September 2020
ISSN 2360-8803
Available online at
Author(s) retain the copyright of this article. Author(s) agree that this article remain permanently open access under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 International License.

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