Estimating the risk of death from COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia
Hamid H. Hussien
This study aims to estimate the risk of death in terms of case fatality ratio (CFR) and point prevalence using a dataset of COVID-19 infections from Saudi Arabia. Another method for estimating CFR by regression modeling was employed, in which the linear functional relationship between the cumulative number of deaths and the cumulative number of confirmed cases was evaluated. The main findings are: The point prevalence of COVID-19 ranged from 0.06% to 4.27%, suggesting that approximately 0.427% of the population of Saudi Arabia has been infected by COVID-19 as of June 18, 2020. The CFR exhibited changes overtime as follows: it was 1.3 on March 24, reached its peak (14.69) on April 7, and gradually declined and stabilized at 5.36. Again, it is gradually increased and reached 7.8 on June 18, 2020. The average CFR was estimated as 7.77± 0.65. The linear trend of the COVID-19 Pandemic in terms of best fit for the data was found to be statistically significant with an R2 value of 0.97. The future of the COVID-19 Pandemic remains unclear, suggesting an extreme and massive action to slow down the global spread of the virus.
Case fatality ratio, prevalence, COVID-19, Saudi Arabia
Hussien HH(2020). Estimating the risk of death from COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia. Int. Res. J. Med. Biomed. Sci 5 (4):29-35.
International Research Journal of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences
Vol.5 (4),pp. 29-35, September 2020
Available online at https://www.journalissues.org/IRJMBS/
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