International Journal of Agricultural Policy and Research
Desert locust infestation on maize production and comparable advantage on profit (Business): A mathematical modeling approach
Salum Ibrahim Kanyungu1* and Oscar Menrad Msamba2
1Department of Management Studies, Tanzania Institute of Accounts (TIA), P. O. Box 5247, Mwanza, Tanzania.
2Department of Applied Sciences and Social Studies, Arusha Technical College, P.O. Box 296, Arusha, Tanzania.
*Corresponding Author Email:kanyungu30(at)gmail.com
Tel:+255789935119
Salum Ibrahim Kanyungu |
Oscar Menrad Msamba |
The economic consideration of trapping (harvesting) and selling desert locusts can be the best technique to balance crop production losses caused by locust infestation and environmental devastation from chemical means of locust control. In this paper, a deterministic mathematical model is used to examine the effects of locusts on maize productivity, and the mechanical control mechanism that is comparable advantage over locust-maize infestation. The model incorporates trapping, selling locusts, fixed and variable costs for revenue and profit maximization. The positivity of the model was determined by using the ordinary differential equation of the maize population to prove if the model is mathematical and biologically meaningful. Model validation and parameter estimation were done by using a non-linear least square optimization algorithm to assess the accuracy and reliability of the proposed model. The numerical simulation of the model was done by using Runge-kutta fourth order algorithm with the aid of Ode 45 solver on MATLAB software. From the simulation, the results show that the locust outbreak influenced the positive gain (profit) of the business through maximum trapping efforts. This suggests that the total loss on maize crop production should be compensated with locust trapping, processing, and selling for business purposes while avoiding the application of chemical sprays for locust control that are not environmentally friendly.
Keywords: Desert locust, management, mathematical model, revenue, profit.
Kanyungu SI, Msamba OM(2024).Desert locust infestation on maize production and comparable advantage on profit (Business): A mathematical modeling approach.Int. J. Agric. Pol. Res. 12(1):1-12. DOI:https://doi.org/10.15739/IJAPR.24.001.
© 2024 The authors.
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