International Journal of Agricultural Policy and Research
Vol.2 (10), pp. 329-333, October 2014
Article 13/ID/ JPR174, 05 pages
Author(s) agree that this article remain permanently open access under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 3.0 International License.
Original Research Article
Trend analysis of milled rice consumption in Nigeria
Saliu Akinlabi Tiamiyu*, Isa Uma-Usman Kolo, Grace Adebunmi Adewale and Uduma Bernadette Ugalahi
National Cereals Research Institute, Badeggi, PMB 8, Bida, Niger State, Nigeria.
*Currently on sabbatical leave in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida University, PMB 11, Lapai, Niger State, Nigeria.
*Corresponding Author E-mail: satiamiyu2(at)gmail.com
Tel.: +234 8087377189
This study was carried out to determine the trend of rice consumption and its implication on rice self sufficiency target by the year 2020. Data on milled rice consumption over a period of fifty four years, 1960 to 2013 was used in the study. The trends of four different periods, 1960-2013, 1970-2013, 1980 to 2013 and 1990 to 2013 were separately analyzed. For each of these periods, four functional equations were estimated using ordinary least square regression. Based on statistical and econometric criteria semi-log equations best fit three periods while double-log equation best fit one of the equations. When the four best fit equations were subject to further econometric analytical criteria, the double log was finally selected and used to forecast milled rice consumption for year 2020. Results showed that 6,720,512 metric tons of milled rice will be required in the year 2020 if the current trends continue. In order to meet this demand, the national rice production would have to increase by 100%. Promotion of improved technologies among rice farmers was suggested as the best option towards achieving the target.
Key words: Nigeria rice, supply deficit, consumption, technology option, multi-period trend.