International Journal of Agricultural Policy and Research Vol.1 (5), pp.142-149,July 2013
© 2013 Journal Issues
Article ID JPR39, 8 pages
Original Research Paper
Climate change impact assessment on water resources of Gumara watershed, upper Blue Nile River basin
Accepted 24 June , 2013
Department of Water Resources and Irrigation Management,Bahir Dar UniversityP.O.Box 79,Bahir Dar,Ethiopia.
Corresponding author Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
Recently, there is growing scientific evidence that the global climate has changed, is changing and will continue to change. Climate change is also expected to aggravate current stresses on availability of water resources, due to rapid population growth and economic development. Consequently, the government has proposed to construct a dam and diversion weir on Gumara River to irrigate 14,100ha of land. However, the major uncertainty in water resources development is the variability of water supply and demand pertaining to changes in climate and in river basin dynamics. Therefore, water supply potential of a river basin is sensitive to climate change and land use. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of climate change on water resources of Gumara watershed using Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (RRV) indices. Generally, projected temperature shows increasing trend for the next century for all scenarios. However, precipitation shows decreasing trend for A2a and B2a scenarios and an increasing trend for the RegCM3-A1b scenario. It is also observed that Reliability and Resilience are above 91% and 96%, respectively; and Vulnerability reveals less than 30% for all climate scenarios. Hence, it is concluded that the proposed irrigation project has higher capability to meet the required target demand. Besides, decision makers and water users in the area can be assured that the project has very good potential to irrigate the required area under 2030s and 2090s climatic conditions.
Key words: Change, gumara watershed, water demand, downscaling, HEC-HMS